Week 11 — Mon, 26 Nov 2007
From: JeffTo: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...
...and the Patriots have already made the playoffs, despite almost losing to the Eagles last night.
This is as much The Bills' fault as their own, but congratulations are in order anyway.
Around the rest of the AFC, the playoff picture is becoming very clear:
In: New England (11-0)
Essentially In: Indianapolis (9-2), Jacksonville (8-3), and either the
Chargers (6-5) or the Broncos (5-6)
Almost In: Pittsburgh(7-3), Cleveland (7-4)
Could be a spoiler: Tennessee (6-5)
Probably Fooling Themselves: Kansas City (4-7)
Virtually every other AFC team is playing for the draft pick, or the opportunity to beat the Patriots -- and there are still five weeks left in the season.
Over in the NFC, things are just a little more in the air:
Essentially In: Green Bay (10-1), Dallas (10-1)
Probably going to get In: Seattle (7-4), Tampa Bay (7-4)
Theirs to Lose: NY Giants (7-4), Detroit (6-5)
And there are six 5-6 teams, any of which could be the team that Detroit gives its playoff spot to (Philadelphia, Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, New Orleans, Arizona).
After watching yesterday's Redskins game, I don't hold out much hope for Washington's playoff chances. They went to Tampa Bay this week, and handed the game over 19-13 on turnovers alone. It all started with one of the most incredible cases of fumble-itis in modern history. The 'Skins offense mishandled the ball a staggering four times in their first five possessions of the game. The offense had been on the field for 45 seconds, total, when it gave up the SECOND fumble on the 26 yard line. It is almost impossible to win a game when you start it like that but the burgundy & gold defense did their best to keep the Redskins in the game. The amazing thing is, they almost pulled it out. The Redskins got the ball twice during the fourth quarter, down by six points. Each drive ended in an interception -- the last one coming in the end zone with seconds left on the clock. It was the kind of momentum-crushing defeat that frequently ends seasons -- which, may in fact, be what it was.
In other news, the wires report that Redskins safety Shawn Taylor was shot in his Miami home last night. At least one report says he was shot in the upper leg. When he was airlifted to the hospital, he was in critical condition -- and his family has requested that no further updates be given. Sadly, it seems as if the Eastern Motors curse has struck again.
In all seriousness, a life-threatening injury to a lower extremity usually involves pretty serious destruction of that extremity and the corresponding loss of blood -- Taylor's career is probably over, if he survives this at all. He's 24. When are the NCAA coaches going to step up and start teaching their players that pro athletes have to sever ties to any former thug lifestyle? When are the NFL offices going to stop drafting these guys?
But on to happier topics... Did you watch the game last night?
Yep, Philly went to New England for a game with a 22 point spread (the highest in years, but apparently the highest on record for an NFL game is 24), and they showed up to play. Eagles coach Andy Reid sat Donavan McNabb on the bench this week, and instead started A.J. Feeley, a strong second-stringer who hadn't started a game in nearly three years. Feeley came out guns ablaze, threw two touchdowns in the first quarter, and kept his team on top off and on throughout the game (something that only the Colts have been able to do against New England this year). Ultimately, though, the game ended in much the same way as the Redskins game -- a misguided throw to the endzone late in the fourth quarter, that resulted in an interception instead of a game-winning touchdown. Despite having the largest spread in recent memory, this turned out to be one of the most evenly matched contests of the week, and the Eagles should be commended for playing as well as they did, despite falling to a disappointing, but still potentially in the running, 5-6.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia defense showed the rest of the league where the Patriots weaknesses are:
1 - Send in strange blitzes. The New England line is stronger than it is versatile, and when you bring the heat, the best way to get through the line is by showing them something they haven't seen before. Brady was sacked three times, hard, and was rushed many more times than he's used to.
2 - Hit Randy Moss, hard, in the first five yards of every play (before it'll draw a hankie), even when you're blitzing from that side. It seems to throw off his rhythm, and he'll drop passes and otherwise stay out of the play. He finished the game with 5 catches for 43 yards.
3 - Don't be afraid to test the Patriots secondary in the 25-35 yard passing range-- they'll pick you off sometimes, but they'll give up some big plays, too. (And did you notice that the Eagles have a flea-flicker in their playbook... and they'll run it with a second-string QB? I think that's pretty great).
The Patriots are in the playoffs, and are playing for home field advantage. They're playing the Ravens and the Steelers over the next two weeks. If the Steelers defense stays healthy, that's likely to be quite a game. And for those of you who keep talking about an undefeated season... may I remind you that the Pats will end their season playing the Giants on the 29th of December. In all likelihood, that game will be meaningless for the Pats, but the Giants will need to win it to get a wild card spot. As tempting as a 16-0 season will be, if Belichick plays his starters on week 17, then the organization will deserve the resulting injuries -- so he'll probably sit them. Any other coach would definitely sit them, but this guy is enough of a prick to win a meaningless game just for the record books.
Our very own San Francisco 49ers may have ended the Cardinals' playoff aspirations in overtime 37-31, when the defensive line converged on Kurt Warner in his own end zone. He ended up fumbling, but he was in the process of being sacked for a safety anyway -- either way, the niners win. This is a mixed blessing, because at 3-8, the niners should be looking towards next year. The Cardinals on the other hand, fall to two games behind Seattle in the NFC West, and into a large morass of 5-6 teams with wild card aspirations -- as usual, things do not look good for the Cardinals late in the season. They host Cleveland next week, before going to Seattle for a game that probably will determine who wins the NFC West. The 49ers are going to Carolina (in their minds?), then hosting Minnesota.
Oakland beat long-time rival Kansas City 20-17 in a game that didn't have playoff meaning for either team (though it was the first time Oakland has beaten the Chiefs in four years -- nine KC/Oaktown games, nine Raiders' losses. No pear trees with poop-filled birds, please). Yes, this side of the rivalry has sunk this low. It's also the first time that both Bay Area NFL teams have won on the same week since 2005. Perhaps a little will rub off on the Warriors.
I tried, oh how I tried, to come up with a transition that involved poop-filled birds and the Miami Dolphins. I failed, so I'll just move on to...
The Game:
Tonight the 0-10, embarrassingly bad, Miami Dolphins go to Pittsburgh to take on the 7-3 Steelers under the shadow of the massive Ketchup bottle that watches over Heinz Field. The Steelers are coming off of an unexpected loss at the hands of the New York Jets last week. With that loss, the Steelers fell behind the 9-2 Colts in the AFC North. They're likely to end up in the playoffs regardless, but they've got a good opportunity here to stay hot on the heels of the Colts, and to stay on top of the NFC wild card race. The Dolphins on the other hand, are desperately trying to win their first game, before they join the 1976 Buccaneers as the only winless team. The Bucs did it when the regular season was only 14 games -- no team has ever gone 0-15 or 0-16.
It is going to be 36 degrees and raining/sleeting in Pittsburgh this evening. Guess which team that's likely to favor.
The Line:
The Steelers are favored by 16. This is one of five games this week with double-digit spreads. The over/under is 40.
Last week, the Smart Money went 1-1. So far, it's 9-3, representing a 43.18% ROI. Over the same time, the S&P 500 has gone down 3.06%.
This week, it takes the over. The over/under was as high as 44.5 earlier in the week, and while the weather will play a significant role in this game, I don't think it'll stop the Steelers offense.
The Bar:
We've been meaning to go to this one for a while... it's a little bit of the north east sports bar/grill, transplanted into an unassuming Potrero Hill neighborhood. This place is an institution, and you'll still find dockworkers in coveralls enjoying an ice cold beer and perfect plate of fries after work. It's definitely worth a visit, despite being a little harder to get to than our usual locales.
Connecticut Yankee 100 Connecticut Street (@17th) Across the street from the 22 Filmore. Within two blocks of the 10 Townsend and 19 Polk. A pretty long nine blocks from the Mariposa stop on the T-Line.
Kickoff is at 5:30.
See you there?