Week 5 — Mon Oct 6 14:42:20 PDT 2008
From: JeffTo: mnf@doobie.com
Subject: It's Monday...
...and the CBOE is offering 8,500 as the over/under of the October 14th Dow closing.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it seems that the only things appreciating in value in New York are the New York Giants.
This week, it was the Seahawks' turn to get throttled by the Giants offense (523 yards, 254 of them on the ground), shut down by the defense(1 for 11 on 3rd down, 74 yards on the ground, no touchdowns), and crushed on the scoreboard (44-6) – all while Plaxico Burress was on the sideline. Apparently the bye week was good for the Giants, and their thumping of the Seahawks protects their undefeated season, and moves them to the top of the NFL standings. The Giants are 4-0, and are headed to Cleveland for next week's MNF. The Seahawks are a dissapointing 1-3, and host Green Bay next Sunday.
There is still one other undefeated team: The 5-0 Tennessee Titans, who barely managed to pull out a 13-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens this week. In the middle of the 4th quarter, down 10-6, veteran QB Kerry Collins got the ball at the 20 yard line, and with the help of a couple of penalty flags and a tired Baltimore defense, managed to move the Titans 80 yards, while burning up most of the clock, and ultimately scoring the winning touchdown. These teams don't like each other very much, and it showed. They racked up 21 combined penalties for 169 yards – more yards than either team got from their passing game. Outside of the penalties, this was a game of defense. Tennessee hasn't allowed a team to score more than 17 points against them this season... and for yet another week, that's enough to get the job done. Apparently sometimes the best offense is a good defense. The 2-2 Ravens go to Indianapolis next Sunday, and the Titans take their 5-0 record into their Bye week.
On the other end of the spectrum, we've got four winless teams: Cincinnatti, Detroit, Houston and St. Louis.
Houston almost pulled off quite the upset this week, having fully contained Indianapolis for the first three and a half quarters of the game. In the final four minutes of the game, Texan backup QB Sage Rosenfelds (former Redskin, but good riddance) singlehandedly turned the ball over three times (two fumbles, one interception), which turned into 21 very quick points from Peyton Manning and the rest of the Indy offense. All Sage had to do was hold onto the ball and run down the clock, and he failed (spectacularly... you'll see his helicoptering game-losing fumble in all the highlight shows this week). The final score was a 31-27 Colts' victory that should be an embarrassment for both teams. The Texans go home and host Miami next week. 2-2 Indianapolis goes to 2-2 Baltimore. If the 0-4 Texans were more healthy, Rosenfelds would be packing his bags.
Lets talk about holding onto the ball. The Redskins are 4-1. They have not turned the ball over yet this year. No fumbles. No interceptions. They haven't even missed a 4th down attempt. Over the last four games, they've comfortably outplayed every team they've faced, at every position. This week was no exception, as the Redskins went to Philly to take on the Eagles. Early in the first quarter, things were not looking good. The Eagles had put 14 points on the board (7 on the opening drive, and then 7 on a punt return that should've been called back on a block to the back penalty that was curiously called on the blockee rather than the blocker. Both players were wearing #50, and as best I can tell, the referee was confused.) As it turned out, it didn't much matter. Those two early touchdowns were enough to wake up the Redskins' defense, which came out and completely shut off the Eagles' running game (58 yards rushing). Meanwhile, the offense came out swinging (203 yards on the ground... within sight of the 215 that the Eagles had allowed in their first four games combined). The only time that the Eagles weren't being dominated on the field was when their punter was in the game (he may be the best in the league, consistently burying kicks within the five yard line). Notable stat: Antwaan Randle El threw an option pass for the only passing touchdown of the game. The Eagles fall to 2-3, and come to San Francisco next Sunday. The 4-1 Redskins' October schedule is more interesting... next week, they host 0-4 St Louis, then host the 1-3 Browns and end the month in 0-4 Detroit. Though anything can happen on any given Sunday, it appears that Washington is finally finished with the second coming of Joe Gibbs era, and they're looking very competitive in the most competitive division in the league.
Dallas hosted the bumbling Cincinnati Bengals, and though the scoreboard said 31-22 Dallas at end of the day, it was a closer game than that. Two Tony Romo turnovers kept the Bengals in the game (it was within one point during the 4th quarter, and one missed two-point conversion away from being tied, later in the 4th). The Bengals' defense had kept T.O. out of the game (he caught two passes for 87 yards, and dropped three others... after complaining last week that he didn't get the ball enough – when he got 17 passes thrown his way.) But, when it came down to finishing the game, the Bengals again came up short. Last week, they took the Giants into overtime. This week, they almost beat Dallas. And that's got to make 0-5 hurt quite a bit more. Next week, the Bengals are headed to NY to play the Jets. Dallas goes to 4-1 and heads for Arizona.
Don't dismiss the Cardinals, who are 8-2 at home over the last two seasons (and are the top team in the NFC West). While they're not a team full of the kind of talent that the Cowboys have on their bench, they are far too often underestimated. This week, the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills were brought back to reality through a 41-17 ass kicking at the hands of those very Cardinals, who benefited from four Bills turnovers in a game that was never really close. Buffalo falls to 4-1, and takes next week off.
The Patriots under backup QB Matt Cassel aren't looking nearly as bad as most fans expected. Unfortunately, their victory this week was at the expense of our own San Francisco 49ers (the first time that the Pats have won at Candlestick, ever). While they're still not a powerhouse team, the Patriots are able to move the ball consistently down the field, and manage to pull out wins, while putting up decent, if uninspiring stats, capped off with one or two big plays each game. They still miss Tom Brady more than any team should miss any single player, but they're looking better than most people give them credit for. I'll stand by my week one prediction of an 8-8 season for the Pats, but I'm beginning to think that 10-6 is more likely than 6-10. But today, they're 3-1, and next week, they play the Sunday night game in San Diego (who were stunned by the Dolphins this week, 17-10). The Niners will be hosting Philly, and both teams will be fighting to stay relevant.
Which brings us to tonight's game...
The Game:
Tonight, the 2-2 New Orleans Saints are hosting the 1-3 Minnesota Vikings on the Fieldturf under the Louisiana Superdome. The Superdome has the dubious distinction of being the only NFL stadium to have installed Fieldturf twice. The original Astroturf was replaced with FT in 2003. It was replaced in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina.
The Vikings are not a very good football team. They have had very little success with their passing game, but have made it up with running and defending against the run. The Saints are not a very good football team either, but have made it up with passing and (sometimes) with defense. Curiously, these teams strengths and weaknesses align fairly well with each other, and there's a good chance of it being a pretty decent contest.
The Line:
The Saints are favored by three. The over/under is 47.
Last week, the Smart Money won. It is now 6-2 for the season, representing a 43.2% ROI. Over the same timeframe, the S&P 500 has gone down 14.2%. This week, the Smart Money takes the Saints and the under... but is a little uncomfortable about the under.
The Bar:
So, this week, we will answer the question that nobody asked: “How long does it take for industrial chic architecture to look dated?”
Gordon Biersh
2 Harrison Street at the Embarcadero.
Steps from the T, the N, and the 12 Bus.
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?