...and congratulations are due to the Indianapolis Colts

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Colts have become the first team to make the playoffs. Their 11-0 record, combined with their 4-0 division record, means that they will win the AFC South, even if they lose the rest of the games they play this year.

This week in the NFL started like nearly every other Thanksgiving week, with the Detroit Lions losing at home 34-12 to the Packers. The Lions' rookie QB Matt Stafford threw four interceptions, and the Packers defense dropped at least two more. You can't win games when you repeatedly give the other team the ball. As there is every year, there's been a lot of speculation about taking the Thanksgiving game away from Detroit. This is a terrible idea. Sure, the Lions are a perennially awful team. They haven't finished above 8-8 yet this century, and despite making the playoffs six times in nine years (the Barry Sanders era of the 90s), they have only won one playoff game since Elvis was #1 on the hit parade (1991, against Dallas). Despite the fact that they entered the NFL in 1930, they have never played in the Super Bowl. Only the Giants, Bears, Packers and Cardinals have been playing in the league longer, and they've each had their fair share of success, but not Detroit.

Yet Lions fans are some of the best in the league. Year after year, people return to their families in Detroit, dust off that old #20 jersey, and share their thanksgiving turkey around the tailgate of an American truck parked at Ford Field. Despite all of the years of awful performance on the field, the fans have supported this team. That is why we need this game. While most of the country only get to see just how unwatchable the Lions are once a year, these fans have to tolerate it week after week, season after season, and they keep coming back, thankful to still have a team playing in their town. That's worth celebrating – and we've got to leave Detroit with something left to celebrate.

Washington Redskins fans could take a few pages from the Lions' fans playbooks again this week, as they watched another close one slip away in the fourth quarter, both against NFC East teams. Last week, it was Dallas, 7-6. This week, it was Philly 27-24. While it's easy to blame the defense for these wretched come-from-ahead defeats, there's plenty of blame to go around. Part of the reason why the Redskins' defense only seems to play 50 minutes of football each week is because the offense can't seem to hold onto the ball long enough to let them catch their breath. Jason Campbell turned the ball over three times (2 INTs, one incomplete pass on fourth down), and despite taking the team to a big lead early, he couldn't move the offense up the field when it counted. You can bet that the talent scouts in Redskins Park are madly viewing NCAA film again this week, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the 'skins are looking to trade for an early draft pick. With the win, the Eagles go to 7-4, one game behind NFC East leader Dallas at 8-3, and in line with teams that are fighting for wild card spots.

The New York Giants went to Denver for Thanksgiving and got outplayed by the Broncos in a 26-6 rout. After last week's 32-3 smackdown at the hands of the Chargers, the Broncos had something to prove, and prove it they did, by keeping Eli Manning and the Giants at least 20 yards away from the end zone essentially all day long (the first time the Giants reached the red zone was with 14 seconds left to go in the game, and they didn't even cross mid-field until the third quarter). This win puts the 7-4 Broncos one game behind the Chargers (and very much in the running for the AFC West or a wild card), and puts the Giants two games behind the Cowboys (dangerously close to falling out of the running for a playoff spot).

Surprising nobody, Dallas beat the Raiders this week, 24-7. Even without JaMarcus, the Raiders aren't a very good team. The Cowboys are the NFC East team to beat. With upcoming games against the Giants, Chargers, Saints and Eagles (plus a sunday night grudge match with the Redskins), the end of their season is no cakewalk, and there's no indication that the Cowboys won't fall apart the way they have during most seasons this decade.

Speaking of late season turnarounds, take a look at the Tennessee Titans, who started the season 0-6, and have fought back to 5-6. This week, they dispatched the Arizona Cardinals on a last second touchdown pass from Vince Young to Kenny Britt, that you'll be seeing over and over again on the highlight reels. The Cardinals were literally six seconds away from winning the game, but instead, the loss takes them to 7-4, and opens the door for San Francisco to sneak in and steal a playoff berth.

San Francisco hosted Jacksonville this week, and rather casually crushed them 20-3, using a spread offense that hasn't been seen in this town in quite a few years. The niners started the season as a running team, which confused defenses all over the league. As the playbook expanded and personnel changed somewhat, the offense started running short passing plays to the tight ends, and would occasionally use the shotgun on third and long. This week, all of that went out the window. At the urging of his players, virtually all sports media, and every Joe Montana fan in the Bay Area, coach Mike Singletary dusted off the spread formation (and yes, the West Coast Offense), and had Alex Smith start slinging the ball regularly in the 8-15 yard range. The result was Smith going 27/41, spreading the ball around among five receivers (each caught it between 4 and 7 times), and throwing two touchdowns. The win brings San Francisco to 5-6, just two games behind Arizona in the NFC West. Next week, SF goes to Seattle, where the Seahawks are struggling. The week after, SF hosts Arizona, in a game that might end up deciding the NFC West.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, without a number of their playmaking starters (including Roethlisberger), weren't able to outlast the Baltimore Ravens last night in Baltimore. Both teams played hard, passionate football, and brought the game to a 17-17 tie at the end of regulation. Each team punted the ball once in overtime, and then the Steelers got the ball at their 45, and started heading towards the goalposts. Two plays later, third-string QB Dennis Dixon, who had looked quite good throughout the game, made his only mistake of the night, underestimating the speed of rookie linebacker Paul Kruger, who intercepted a pass at about midfield and took it down to the 28 yard line. A few plays later, a 29 yard field goal won the game for the Ravens. The win brings Baltimore to 5-6, and keeps them in the wild card race for at least another week. The loss knocks Pittsburgh down to 6-5, two games behind division leader Cincinnati. The Steelers are still competitive in the wild card race, but short of a Bengal Bungle, they're not going to win their division, and are at serious risk of sitting out the playoffs altogether. Considering the length of their Injured Reserve list, this might be a blessing for their players.

 

AFC:
In: 11-0 Colts
Essentially in: 8-3 Bengals
Probably going to get in: 8-3 Chargers, 7-4 Broncos, 7-3 Patriots
Keeping it interesting: 6-5 Ravens, 6-5 Steelers, 6-5 Jaguars
Holding on to a distant chance for at least another week: 5-6 Dolphins, 5-6 Jets
Fooling Themselves, but not eliminated: 5-6 Texans, 5-6 Titans

NFC:
Essentially in: 10-0 Saints, 10-1 Vikings
Probably going to get in: 8-3 Cowboys
Fighting to stay in: 7-4 Cardinals
Keeping it interesting: 7-4 Eagles, 6-5 Giants, 7-4 Packers, 6-5 Falcons
Could be an unexpected spoiler: 5-6 49ers

That's a total of 17 teams, fighting for 11 remaining playoff berths, with a lot of interesting games to come. And that brings us to tonight's game...

 

The Game:
Tonight, the 10-0 Saints host the 7-3 New England Patriots on the FieldTurf-topped floor of the Louisana Superdome.

A win tonight will clinch a playoff berth for the Saints. A loss means the end of their undefeated season, and little more – there will be five other chances to clinch their berth. Meanwhile, New England, after barely missing the playoffs last year, is sincerely concerned about being caught by either the Dolphins or the Jets (both at 5-6). A win tonight would put the Patriots three games ahead (almost uncatchable with five games left to play). A loss tonight not only keeps the Dolphins' hopes alive, but it sets up a very meaningful game in Miami next week (who'd have thought that week 13 Patriots/Dolphins would even be relevant).

The Line:
The Saints are favored by 1.5. The over/under is 56.5.

Last week, the Smart Money won, as the Texans barely beat the spread. It is now 13-6 for the season, representing a 30.6% ROI. Over the same time, the S&P 500 has gone up 6.0%, and the dollar has lost 3.0% against the Euro.

This week, the Smart Money takes the Patriots and the Over.

The Bar:
In honor of the Detroit Lions' Elvis-era playoff win (which was against the 49ers in 1957), we're going to be across the parking lot from where the game was played.

Kezar Pub and Restaurant
770 Stanyan Street (near Waller)
Steps from the 7 and 71 busses. Within 2 blocks of the N, 33, 43 and 37.

Be aware that there's a doppelganger bar (named the Kezar Bar and Grill), over on Cole street. Ignore that one.

Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?