Week 13 — Mon Dec 7 13:04:07 PST 2009
From: Jeff
To: mnf@doobie.com
Date: Mon Dec 7 13:04:07 PST 2009
Subject: It's Monday...
...and Dallas is falling apart, Favre is throwing the ball to the other team, and some teams are stuck playing against the referees.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it must be December.
The Dallas Cowboys, especially under Tony Romo, have a problem with December. It's been thirteen seasons since they won more games in December than they lost. Romo is 35-18 as a Cowboy, which are good numbers. In December and January, he's 5-11, which are not. The fate of coach Wade Phillips rests on his team's performance over the next four weeks (and beyond, if they manage to hold on to a playoff berth). The coach's contract ends this season, and owner Jerry Jones has rather loudly told Phillips that his continued tenure in Dallas rested on how the team performs down the stretch. With upcoming games against 9-3 San Diego, 12-0 New Orleans, and 8-4 Philadelphia, (plus a very pissed-off Washington), I don't think that Wade should be buying any real estate in Texas.
This week, the Cowboys went to East Rutherford, NJ and got spanked by the New York Giants 31-24. This loss is mostly the fault of the Cowboys' poor attempts at tackling. The defense was atrocious whenever they needed to stop a big play. Brandon Jacobs turned a routine short pass into a 74-yard touchdown. Domenik Hixon returned a punt by running through the middle of an entire fleet of Dallas special-teams players before sprinting down the sideline for a touchdown. The only reason that Dallas was even in this game was because of a record-setting day on offense. Tony Romo threw 41 for 55, 392 yards, and three touchdowns and no interceptions – some of the best numbers in his career, but still not enough to make up for a game full of missed open-field tackles. The Giants have now beaten Dallas both times they played this season (so they'll win the playoff tiebreaker if it comes to that), and are now 7-5. Dallas falls to 8-4, and is tied with the Eagles for top spot in the NFC East (and their tiebreaker will depend on the outcome of their head-to-head contest in week 17).
8-4 Dallas, 8-4 Philly, 7-5 NY Giants. One of these teams will get in by winning the NFC East. The other two are in the thick of the wild card race. Right now, it's anyone's division to win...
...except for the Redskins. This week, they hosted the undefeated New Orleans Saints, and lost a 33-30 heartbreaker in overtime. Yes, the Redskins put up 30 points, and still lost. This is the third week in a row that they've watched a fourth quarter lead slip away, twice on the foot of kicker Sean Suisham. Amazingly enough, he missed a chip shot from 23 yards out this week, a kick that likely would've won the game by giving the 'skins a 10 point lead with about a minute on the clock. Instead, the Saints got the ball on the 20, down seven points, and managed to tie the game and go to overtime.
What happened in overtime is what made the game unbelievable. On the first drive, Redskins fullback Mark Sellers had the ball and was hit in the shins by Chris McAlister. He went ass over teakettle, coming down on his elbow, and lost the ball sometime in the process. Immediately, the sideline judge blows his whistle and points at the ground emphatically, saying “the runner's elbow hit the ground before the ball came out, he is down by contact”. So the Redskins lined up for another play... and immediately before the ball is snapped, New Orleans calls a timeout, to implore the replay booth to take another look. Sure enough, they do, and they overturn the call. Not only did they find “indisputable visual evidence” that the ball was coming out before Sellers hit the ground (in truth, it's way too close to tell), they somehow decided that a fumble recovered after the whistle had blown is still a turnover. The first half of that is a judgment call. The second half isn't. Still, the Saints got the ball on the 37, moved it to the two, and kicked a game winning field goal from 18.
The Saints have the benefit of an MVP candidate quarterback, and the potential to stay undefeated. Sometimes that buys them a little extra help from the officials, sure, but this one goes way beyond the pale. It was poor form for the Saints to call the timeout and beg for a reversal (you don't get a challenge flag in overtime, but that's what this was). It was a bad call to reverse the play at all, but it was completely baffling to then give the ball to the Saints because of what happened after the play was (mistakenly) blown dead. I hope that the NFL officiating office weighs in on this one.
Regardless, had the Redskins made the 23 yard field goal in the fourth, this game wouldn't have even gone to overtime. Adios, Shawn. In the last three games, Shawn Suisham has missed two very makeable field goals and one 50 yarder that's almost forgivable. Forget that these are his only misses of the season, had he made any one of them, the Redskins would be better than 3-9. That's what matters. The race for the first firing in Washington might be over, and Jim “Teflon” Zorn has somehow survived. With four weeks left, there's not a whole lot of talent out there on the free agent market, but Dave Rayner, who the 'skins cut in September, isn't playing for an NFL team right now.
Speaking of unexpected talent, how about those Raiders! This week, they went to Pittsburgh, and came back from a huge deficit in the fourth quarter to win 27-24. JaMarcus Russell continues to do his best work from the bench. With any luck, he'll look good on someone else's bench next season. Meanwhile Bruce Gradkowski picked holes in the Steelers' defense all day long, generating 396 yards of offense, including three fourth-quarter touchdowns. Again, the Pittsburgh defense couldn't put the game away when it counted, and again it hurt them (the Steelers were leading in the fourth quarter for five of their six losses). The Steelers have now lost four straight, and their 6-6 record almost takes them out of wild card contention. They've probably already lost the AFC North. It's clear how much they miss Troy Polamalu, but it's unacceptable for them to not keep the bench staffed with competent backup players. The Steelers defensive bench is very thin, and it has probably already cost them their postseason.
The Miami Dolphins made things very interesting in the AFC East, by defeating the New England Patriots 22-21, almost entirely on the arm of Dolphins' relief QB Chad Henne, who threw the ball 52 times to eight receivers. This game was a game of missed opportunities for the Patriots, in particular Tom Brady's two fourth-quarter interceptions (one of them in the end zone) and overthrown receivers. Some of this was forced by the bizarre defensive formations that the Dolphins were using, which held the Patriots' usually explosive offense to just one score in the second half, and eliminated whatever running game is left in New England. The Pats fall to 7-5, and they've got to be thinking about last year when they went 11-5 and missed the playoffs. The Dolphins climb to 6-6, and have got to be thinking about the Patriots' last season...
7-5 Patriots, 6-6 Jets, 6-6 Dolphins. One of these teams will get in. The Dolphins currently win all tiebreakers, and the Jets have a fairly difficult schedule ahead of them. Interesting times in the AFC East.
The Playoff Race:
AFC:
In: 12-0 Colts
Essentially in: 9-3 Bengals, 9-3 Chargers
Probably going to get in: 8-4 Broncos
Keeping it interesting: 7-5 Patriots, 7-5 Jaguars, 6-6 Dolphins, 6-6 Jets, 6-5 Ravens
Holding on to a distant chance for at least another week: 6-6 Steelers
NFC:
In: 12-0 Saints
Essentially in: 10-2 Vikings, 8-4 Cardinals
Fighting to stay in: 8-4 Cowboys
Keeping it interesting: 8-4 Eagles, 7-5 Giants, 7-4 Packers
Fooling Themselves: 6-6 Falcons, 5-7 49ers
So, with all of these interesting teams, we're bound to have some interesting games coming up this week, between good teams, with huge playoff implicatons, right? Yep!
Denver @Indianapolis, Cincinnati @Minnesota, Miami @Jacksonville, San Diego @Dallas, and Philly @Giants. Five games to watch next Sunday. Hope your remote control is up to the challenge.
And then there's tonights game...
The Game
Tonight the 6-5 Baltimore Ravens go to Lambeau Field to take on the 7-4 Green Bay Packers on the Desso GrassMaster + Bluegrass field installed in 2007. For ages, Lambeau's turf was among the worst, especially late in the season when cold weather, long nights, and wet snowfalls took their toll on the natural grass. After re-soding for the third time in 2006, the Packers organization threw in the towel, finally admitting that growing bluegrass in the upper latitudes in January is folly. The half-fake replacement is now considered one of the best playing surfaces in the league.
Both of these teams have legitimate playoff aspirations. Green Bay is currently holding the last NFC wild-card (if the season ended yesterday, Green Bay and Philly would get 'em). Baltimore trails Jacksonville by half a game, and is outside looking in. For both teams, this is a must win, in 20 degree weather, with a snowstorm on the way. It should be a good one.
The Line
Green Bay is favored by three and a half. The over/under is 43.
Last week, the Smart Money continued its decline, going 0-2 and grumbling about missed field goals. It is now 13-8 for the season, representing an 18.2% ROI. Over the same time, the S&P 500 has gone up 6.7%, and the Dollar has gone down 1.75%
This week, the Smart Money takes the Under.
The Bar
It's been a while since we've been here, a great little bar in an unlikely location. Beware the 25 cent penalty for using the F word near the bartender. The place doesn't serve food, but there are a handful of takeout places within a block, and a binder of delivery menus behind the bar.
Greens Sports Bar
2239 Polk Street (near Green)
Steps from the 19 Polk, Within a block of the 41 Union, 45 Union-Stockton, 47 and 49 Van Ness.
Kickoff is at 5:30. See you there?