...and apparently there’s no such thing as a late season advantage in schedule.

 Yes, ladies and gentlemen, It was a crazy week in the NFL.  Good teams lost.  Bad teams looked good.  The playoff situation got much clearer in the NFC, and muh muddier in the AFC.  And JaMarcus won a game with a touchdown pass in the final minute.

 The Playoffs:

NFC:
In: Saints (13-1), Vikings (11-3), Eagles (10-4), Cardinals (9-5)
Nearly In: Cowboys, Packers (both 9-5)
Hanging on:  Giants (7-6)

 This week’s game in Philly sealed two spots in the playoffs.  When the Eagles beat the 49ers 27-13, it took the Niners out of the chase, gave the NFC West title to Arizona, and guaranteed the Eagles a berth (the Eagles will either win the NFC East, or get a wild card).  

 The Giants are still in the running, but just barely.  More on this in a minute.

 So, in the NFC, right now it’s all about seeding.  What is seeding, you ask, and why is it important?  Well...  here’s a primer:

 The four teams that win their divisions (Saints, Vikings, Cardinals, and either the Eagles or Cowboys) will be ranked by their overall records.  In the case of a tie, the NFL’s tiebreaking rules go into effect.  These divisional winners will take seeds #1 through #4.  The two wild card teams will take #5 and #6 (again, ordered by their overall regular season records).

The first weekend of the playoffs (January 9 & 10), seed #3 will host seed #6, and seed #4 will host #5.  Winners will advance, and the season is over for the two losing teams.

The second weekend of the playoffs, seed #1 will host the highest number seed that’s still alive (highest number seed = lowest ranked) , and seed #2 will host the other seed.

The third weekend of the playoffs, there will be only two teams left.  They’ll play each other in the stadium of the higher ranked team.  Seed #1 will play all playoff games at home.  Seed #6 will play all playoff games on the road.

So, seeds #1 and #2 only have to win two playoff games to get to the super bowl.  #3-6 will need to win three. Seeds #1 through #4 will play at least their first playoff game at home.   

The NFC Seeding looks something like this:

1 - Saints.  They’ll clinch this with another win, or a Vikings loss.
2 & 3 -  Vikings and Eagles, with the Vikings currently holding a one game lead.
4 - Cardinals (could potentially take #3 if the Eagles melt down).
5 -  Packers
6 -  Cowboys.

There are some interesting upcoming games, especially in the NFC East.  Next Sunday, Dallas will play in Washington, and Philly will host Denver.  Then, Dallas and Philly will play each other, in what will almost certainly be the best game of week 17.

If Dallas wins both of their upcoming games, then the Cowboys will win the NFC East (and take seed #3, pushing the Eagles to a wild card and seed #5).  This week’s nearly textbook upset of the previously unbeaten Saints made a bold statement... The Cowboys believe they are ready for the curse of December to end.  Only time will tell.

Green Bay is in control of its destiny, and will virtually guarantee a wild card with one more win, either at home vs Seattle, or away at Arizona.

And don’t forget the Giants.  They’re 7-6, and playing tonight in Washington.  If they win all three of their upcoming games against the Redskins, Panthers and Vikings, they’ll finish 10-6... with a tiebreaker advantage over Dallas.  So, if the Giants finish 10-6, they can take the wild card away from Dallas, by watching Philly win in week 17 or Washington win in week 16.  

And then there’s the AFC, where only four teams have been completely eliminated:

AFC:
In: Colts (14-0), Chargers (11-3)
Nearly In: Patriots (9-5), Bengals (9-5)
Fighting for the last two spots:  Ravens (8-6), Broncos (8-6), Jaguars (7-7), Dolphins (7-7), Jets (7-7), Steelers (7-7), Titans (7-7), Texans (7-7).

The Colts have clinched the #1 seed, and the Chargers clinch #2 with one more win or a Patriots loss.  

Both the Patriots and the Bengals can get in with their next win.  They’ll take #3 and #4.  If they finish the season tied, the Patriots will win the tiebreaker.

The Wild Card race is a little absurd.  The two 8-6 teams (Baltimore, Denver) are in control of their own destinies.  If they win the rest of their games, they’ll win the wild cards.  If either team loses a game, and especially if they lose two, it could open the door for one of the six 7-7 teams to take it away.  

Baltimore plays their two remaining games on the road, at Pittsburgh and at Oakland.  This week, they routed Chicago 31-7.  Joe Flacco threw four touchdowns.  The Bears gave up six turnovers.  If the Ravens can keep up this sort of momentum, they’ll be playing in January.

Denver has been playing inconsistent football these days, and dropped a game at home against the Raiders this weekend.  Yes, the Raiders.  Third-string quarterback Charlie Ware started the game, but got knocked out during the fourth quarter.  In went JaMarcus, and amazingly enough, he managed to throw a winning touchdown pass with 39 seconds left in the game.  This game was won by the Oakland defense (or perhaps the lack of Bronco offense).  Denver only ran the ball 80 yards.  In the next two weeks,  Denver plays at Philadelphia and at home vs Kansas City.

Miami still has a chance to win their conference, if the Patriots lose their two remaining games (vs. Jacksonville, at Houston) and the fins win their remaining games (at home vs Houston and Pittsburgh).  It’s unlikely, but it’s not impossible.

Which brings us to tonight’s game.

The Game:
Tonight, the New York Giants try to hang onto their unlikely playoff possibilities when they go to Landover Maryland and take on the Washington Redskins on the TifSport Bermuda grass surface of FedEx Field.

The 4-9 Redskins are already eliminated; for them, this game is about pride.  The 7-6 Giants need to win this game to stay relevant in the playoff race.  A Redskins win tonight would make it a lot easier for Dallas to get in.  

The Line:
The Giants are favored by three.  The Over/Under is 43.5.

Last week, the Smart Money lost.  It’s now 14-9 for the season, representing an ROI of 16.2%.  Over the same time, the S&P 500 has gone up 7.83%, and the US Dollar has gone up 1.9% compared to the Euro.

This week, the Smart Money is taking the Over, and choosing not to take the Pete Rose Exemption by taking the Giants, and admitting it.  It’s better to root against the Redskins than it is to root for Dallas to get closer to the postseason.  

The Bar:
I’m skipping out on this game, not only because I’m conflicted about who to cheer for on a rainy night in SF, but because many of you have already left town (or are leaving in the next 24 hours), so attendance was going to be very light.  Instead of pondering the answer to “What happens if nobody shows up?”, I’m going to just not show up.

But, for those who are still in town....

Steffs
141 2nd Street, between Minna and Natoma (one block south of Mission).
Steps from the 10 and 12.  Within 2 blocks of the Market and Mission street transit corridors.

Kickoff is at 5:30, a full 35 minutes after the sun goes down in SF on this, the shortest day of the year. 
Go ‘Skins... er, Giants.